Chinese economy expected to grow by 10 pct in 2011: CASS

BEIJING, Dec. 7 (Xinhua) -- China's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by around 10 percent in 2011 with effective macroeconomic controls, a leading government think tank forecast Tuesday.

"If China's macroeconomic controls can be kept relatively stable, its economy will maintain relatively rapid growth in 2011," said the 2011 Economic Blue Paper from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).

The report identified domestic driving forces for growth, global economic conditions and the effectiveness of macroeconomic controls as the three major factors that would affect China's economy in the next year.

After the global financial crisis, the authorities had tried to boost the role of domestic demand, but the economy had become more dependent on investment mainly as a result of the stimulus policies the government rolled out during the global downturn, said the CASS.

China's economy also faced more uncertainties in the international markets as the recovery of the global economy became more complicated, said the report.

As investment in the property sector accounted for 20 percent of China's total fixed assets investment, and the sector was closely tied to many other sectors, the central government's measures to rein in the housing market would put decelerating pressure on growth, said the CASS.

The central government's stricter control and regulation of local government financing vehicles would also slow down the pace of investment growth, said the report.

The CASS also forecast China's economy would grow by 9.9 percent for the whole 2010.

Official data showed China's GDP grew 9.6 percent in the third quarter, lower than the 10.3 percent in the second quarter and 11.9 percent in the first quarter. From January to September, the economy increased by 10.6 percent year on year.